In addition, monitoring commodity markets can provide insights into the global growth picture. I tend to focus on three main commodities: copper, gold, and oil.
Copper is a very important industrial metal. Copper pipes line the walls of commercial and residential structures. Copper is also used in tech products, like smartphones. It has been said that copper has a Ph.D. in economics because as copper goes, so does global growth.
Gold is a completely different animal than copper, as it doesn’t play much of a role as an industrial metal. I often say gold has multiple personality disorder. Gold tends to plays three roles, depending on temperament:
as a safe haven investment/risk-off hedge,
as a U.S. dollar substitute (i.e., the anti-US$), and
as a real asset / inflation hedge.
The chart below shows I use gold as a risk appetite measure.
Oil and gasoline are terribly important, for obvious reasons, to global growth. I am far from being an expert on commodities so I try to keep things simple. I focus on demand and supply metrics. The below charts illustrate how I track consumption, production, and inventories.
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